Some damn good discussion’s been going on at the AE Message Boards about the state of UMBC, getting me more and more excited about the potential of the direction of the program. The next step would be getting their first win against a Division 1 opponent in the month of November for the first time since 2008. Tonight’s their last shot at that until next year.
When the America East sent all of their teams to the Bracket Buster last year, UMBC drew Canisius with the stipulation that the Golden Griffins return to the RAC. At the time, Canisius was on a ten-game losing streak, but was bolstered by Alshwan Hymes scoring 19 points in the first half, and Maryland-native Harold Washington with 16 points overall. This year, they have a new coach, whose son is scoring 17.5 points per game, and return Washington and Hymes, who are scoring 17.8 and 8 points per game respectively.
The Golden Griffins currently are 3-1, with with a win against Boston U and a recent loss to Stony Brook. On paper, these two teams match up near-evenly. The two teams are shooting three’s nearly identical (33%-30%), though the Golden Griffins shoot better from the line. However, the Retrievers have an advantage in rebounding (36-29 rpg) and Canisius’s defense is lacking. The Retrievers need defensive stops out of guards Aaron Morgan and Ryan Cook. The interior defense of UMBC, with the already maligned Brett Roseboro, may have trouble against 6’10″ center Jordan Heath (9.8 ppg), so the guards will have to step up in that category.
Oh, by the way, you’re reading these numbers below correctly.
Canisius 118, UMBC 334.25
RealTime RPI Prediction
UMBC 74, Canisius 68
Team Rankings Predictions
Canisius 70, UMBC 66